By Jemimah Wellington, JKNewsMedia Correspondent
FOOD INSECURITY risks are rising across Nigeria and other African countries following economic disruptions linked to the Gulf War, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned, raising concerns over the region’s recovery outlook.
JKNewsMedia.com reports that the warning follows projections in the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises that conflict, drought and declining aid will keep global hunger at critical levels this year, with worsening conditions expected in some of the world’s most fragile countries.
IMF Director of the African Department, Abebe Aemro Selassie, in a blog post, stated that Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on a relatively strong footing but now faces mounting risks that could derail progress.
He noted that the region recorded its fastest growth in a decade in 2025, expanding by 4.5 percent, supported by easing macroeconomic imbalances, improved investment flows and a favourable global backdrop.
Several economies including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia and Rwanda grew above six percent, while inflation moderated to about 3.5 percent and public debt levels began to edge lower, reflecting sustained reform efforts.
He warned that the outlook has shifted, stating: “A prolonged conflict could further inflate commodity prices, trigger a risk off episode in global markets, and force abrupt fiscal adjustments in countries with large refinancing needs.
In a severe downside scenario, as detailed in the IMF’s latest, regional output this year could fall 0.6 percent below pre war forecasts, with oil importers suffering the most, and inflation could surge by an additional 2.4 percentage points.
“The human costs are equally stark. Food insecurity looms large: the region remains acutely vulnerable to food price shocks, and the war has already driven up fertiliser and shipping costs.
“A 20 percent rise in international food prices could push more than 20 million people into food insecurity and leave 2 million children under age 5 acutely malnourished.
Climate shocks intensify the strain the recent floods in Mozambique and Madagascar serve as a reminder of the region’s deep vulnerability to weather disruptions.”
He stressed that structural reforms remain critical to cushioning the shock and strengthening resilience, adding: “Even as policymakers grapple with the immediate shock, the medium term reform agenda cannot wait.
The premium on accelerating structural reforms to boost growth and resilience is now even higher.
Improving the business climate, strengthening governance, and reforming state owned enterprises, especially in energy, transport and telecommunications, can help attract investment and lift productivity.
“Deepening regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area could bolster supply chain resilience and expand markets for local producers.”
The IMF also cautioned that declining foreign aid is removing a critical buffer for vulnerable economies, noting that 2025 marked a sharp structural break in aid flows, with cuts hitting fragile states and threatening essential services, particularly healthcare.
On debt, Selassie stated: “Debt vulnerabilities are also rising.
More than one third of countries are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress. In 21 countries, fiscal deficits exceed the levels that are needed to stabilise debt.
“Rising interest bills and dwindling concessional finance are inflating debt service burdens and crowding out essential development spending.
“In some cases, growing reliance on domestic borrowing has deepened ties between government debt and bank balance sheets, raising the specter of financial instability.”
The 10th edition of the Global Report on Food Crises, published by a coalition of development and humanitarian organisations, reported that acute hunger has doubled over the past decade, with two famines declared last year in Gaza and Sudan.
It says a total of 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, while 1.4 million people experienced catastrophic conditions in parts of Haiti, Mali, Gaza, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen, Reuters reported.
In 2025 alone, 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.
The report stated that severity levels remain critical this year, with only Haiti expected to move out of the worst category due to slight security improvements and increased humanitarian aid.
“We are no longer seeing just temporary shocks, but persistent shocks over time,” said Alvaro Lario, head of the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development.
“The main message is that food insecurity is not an isolated issue anymore, but is putting pressure on global stability,” he told Reuters.
JKNewsMedia.com also reports Lario added that the U.S-Israeli war on Iran has heightened concerns, warning that prolonged disruption to energy and fertiliser trade could spill into global food markets and worsen hunger in import dependent countries already facing crises.
“Even if the conflict in the Middle East were to end right now, we know that a lot of the food price shocks and inflation will happen in the next six months,” he said.
The report noted that West Africa and the Sahel are expected to remain under pressure from conflict and persistent inflation, particularly in Nigeria, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, with Nigeria projected to record one of the largest increases in food insecurity in 2026 as 4.1 million more people face acute hunger.
In East Africa, failed rains across much of the Horn of Africa are expected to deepen suffering in Somalia and Kenya, where drought, insecurity, high food prices and reduced humanitarian aid are likely to worsen conditions.
It added that humanitarian and development financing for food sectors in crisis fell sharply in 2025 and is projected to decline further, with humanitarian food sector funding estimated to have dropped by about 39% from 2024 levels, while development assistance contracted by at least 15 percent.
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