By Jemimah Wellington, JKNewsMedia Correspondent
THE GLOBAL shortage of aircraft is expected to continue for another decade, with supply levels unlikely to return to normal before 2031–2034, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned.
IATA said the aviation sector is still grappling with severe delivery delays, a fast-growing backlog of orders, and years of production shortfalls that have left many airlines unable to expand or replace ageing fleets.
Its latest global outlook noted that aircraft deliveries be hasgan to improve toward the end of 2025, and production is projected to rise in 2026, but these gains will not meet current airline demand worldwide.
One of the main concerns highlighted by IATA is the size of the existing order backlog. Airlines have placed orders for more than 17,000 aircraft, equating to nearly 12 years of production at current manufacturing rates.
The association explained this far exceeds the long-term benchmark, where backlogs typically account for 30 to 40 percent of the active global fleet.
Aircraft manufacturers, including Airbus and Boeing, are still recovering from supply chain disruptions triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside labour shortages, parts delays, and regulatory hurdles, it said.
Engine suppliers are also struggling to meet production targets due to shortages of critical components and the need for extensive inspections and repairs on certain engine models, it also added.
IATA described these combined challenges as creating a “structural mismatch” between airline requirements and manufacturer output.
“The availability of aircraft remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth,” the association said. “While deliveries picked up in late 2025 and production is set to increase next year, demand is expected to outpace the supply of aircraft and engines.”
The global aviation industry is already facing delivery shortfalls of at least 5,300 aircraft over the past five years, IATA stated adding that these shortfalls comprise planes initially scheduled for delivery but delayed or cancelled due to supply chain disruptions.
Consequently, airlines have had to keep older aircraft in service longer than planned. IATA reported that the average age of global fleets has risen to 15.1 years.
Passenger aircraft now average 12.8 years, while cargo fleets, traditionally older, approach 20 years.
Other older planes also carry higher maintenance costs and greater fuel consumption, raising operational expenses at a time when many carriers are still recovering from pandemic-related losses and high fuel prices.
Despite the shortage, more than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage globally.
Many were grounded during the pandemic, while others await maintenance, engine replacement, or regulatory approval. Certain older wide-body models are no longer in high demand, contributing to storage numbers.
IATA said the large number of stored aircraft reflects ongoing inefficiencies in the global supply chain. Some airlines cannot reactivate planes quickly due to spare part shortages, limited maintenance capacity, and lengthy engine repair times.
The aircraft shortfall is already affecting airline schedules, fares, and expansion plans. With limited planes available, carriers are cutting route growth, delaying new destinations, or reducing flight frequencies.
This could result in fewer travel options and higher ticket prices for passengers.
In developing regions such as Africa, rising demand for air travel may be constrained by the shortage.
African airlines, which already contend with high operating costs, limited financing, and weaker infrastructure, may face worsened challenges in acquiring new aircraft.
For Nigeria and other West African nations, carriers may need to rely on older planes longer, increasing maintenance costs and reducing efficiency.
Aircraft manufacturers face pressure to raise production without compromising safety or quality yet scaling output is complex.
The industry relies on a long, intricate supply chain spanning thousands of global suppliers. Many have faced labour shortages, financial difficulties, and disruptions in raw material access.
Engine manufacturers producing modern, fuel-efficient engines have encountered technical issues and increased maintenance requirements.
IATA said these challenges will take years to resolve, warning airlines to anticipate tight supply until the early 2030s, nevertheless, global air travel demand is expected to continue rising as economies grow, tourism expands, and business travel recovers.
Airlines are placing large orders to replace ageing fleets and improve fuel efficiency in line with climate goals.
Without expanded production capacity and a more stable supply chain, the aviation industry faces a prolonged mismatch between supply and demand, IATA noted adding that airlines are being advised to adjust fleet strategies, maintain older aircraft safely, and plan for gradual rather than rapid growth.
