By Joke Kujenya
ECONOMIC EXPANSION in 2024 outpaced expectations, with Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising by 3.40 per cent—exceeding projections made by international financial institutions.
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) linked this growth to the economic policies introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration since May 2023.
A statement issued by IMPI Chairman, Dr Omoniyi M. Akinsiju, highlighted that the 2024 GDP growth rate marked an increase from 2.74 per cent in 2023.
The economy’s strong fourth-quarter performance, at 3.84 per cent, contributed significantly to the annual expansion.
Comparative analysis by IMPI showed that global institutions underestimated the country’s economic performance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank both projected 3.30 per cent GDP growth, while PwC estimated 3.1 per cent.
Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, also aligned with these forecasts. However, IMPI noted that all these estimates fell short by more than one percentage point.
Reviewing GDP trends over recent years, the statement revealed that the economy recorded a real GDP of 3.25 per cent in 2022, followed by a decline to 2.86 per cent in 2023 before rebounding to 3.40 per cent in 2024.
Projections for 2025 indicate a stark contrast between global and local expectations.
The IMF forecasts 3.2 per cent growth, while the World Bank projects 3.5 per cent and PwC suggests 3.3 per cent.
However, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) anticipates 4.17 per cent growth, while Financial Derivatives Company projects a higher 6 per cent expansion.
IMPI argued that international financial institutions might not fully understand the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
The policy group emphasised that the shift from a subsidy-driven economy to a market-oriented model has removed several growth constraints, including price controls.
Citing key economic indicators such as declining inflation, exchange rate stability, increased oil production, and foreign investment inflows, IMPI projected a potential 5.4 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025.
