By Ajibola Olaide, JKNewsMedia Reporter
ECONOMIC GROWTH in 2024 surpassed expectations, reinforcing the impact of reforms initiated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on 29 May 2023.
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) disclosed this in a statement issued by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi M. Akinsiju.
At 3.40 per cent for the full year, Nigeria’s GDP growth exceeded projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
The figure marked a 0.66 per cent increase from the 2.74 per cent recorded in 2023, driven by a 3.84 per cent economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The 2024 GDP growth rate was the highest recorded between 2022 and 2024. The country’s real GDP stood at 3.25 per cent in 2022 before dropping to 2.86 per cent in 2023 and subsequently rising to 3.4 per cent in 2024.
IMPI’s analysis compared Nigeria’s real GDP figures with global forecasts.
The IMF adjusted its projections three times, settling at 3.30 per cent, while the World Bank maintained a similar estimate. However, both institutions fell short by 1.10 per cent of the actual growth rate.
Similarly, Financial Derivatives Company, led by Bismarck Rewane, aligned with IMF and World Bank estimates at 3.30 per cent.
PwC offered a slightly lower projection of 3.1 per cent. All these projections underestimated Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 by over one percentage point.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projected a 3.76 per cent GDP growth for 2024, a forecast closer to the actual figures.
Reviewing 2025 projections, IMPI observed discrepancies between global institutions and domestic entities.
The IMF forecasted a 3.2 per cent GDP growth, the World Bank estimated 3.5 per cent, and PwC projected 3.3 per cent. In contrast, the CBN predicted 4.17 per cent, and Financial Derivatives Company anticipated a robust 6 per cent expansion.
IMPI also attributed the variations to global institutions’ limited understanding of Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms.
The shift from a subsidy-dependent model to a market-driven economy has unlocked growth potential. Reforms have alleviated constraints such as price controls, fostering economic expansion.
With inflation declining, exchange rate volatility reducing, and oil production increasing, Akinsiju said Nigeria’s economy is poised for further growth.
He added that the IMPI aligns with projections ranging from 4.7 per cent to 6 per cent GDP growth in 2025, modelling a possible 5.4 per cent expansion driven by foreign investments, solid minerals development, and stabilising interest rates.
