By Ajibola Olaide, JKNewsMedia Reporter
THE WORLD Bank has forecast a troubling increase in poverty levels in Nigeria over the next five years, projecting a rise of 3.6 percentage points by 2027.
The projection, revealed in the Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report, comes during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
While Nigeria has seen some improvements in economic activity, particularly in the non-oil sector during the final quarter of 2024, the report highlights that persistent structural issues—such as the nation’s reliance on natural resources and overall national fragility—are likely to prevent significant progress in poverty alleviation.
The Bank’s analysis indicates that Nigeria, along with other resource-rich and fragile nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, faces a worsening poverty outlook.
This stands in stark contrast to non-resource-rich countries in the region, which are expected to experience more rapid poverty reduction.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
The document underscores that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicentre of extreme poverty, with the region home to 80% of the world’s 695 million people living in extreme poverty as of 2024.
Within the region, the report highlights that half of the extreme poor are concentrated in just four countries, including Nigeria.
In contrast, other regions such as South Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean have significantly lower concentrations of extreme poverty.
The World Bank attributes the slower pace of poverty reduction in resource-rich countries to factors such as declining oil prices and fragile fiscal structures.
By comparison, non-resource-rich nations are benefiting from high agricultural commodity prices, which are bolstering economic growth despite fiscal pressures.
The report notes that this pattern follows a well-established trend where countries with resource wealth, combined with fragility or conflict, tend to have the highest poverty rates.
In 2024, these nations are expected to have an average poverty rate of 46%, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.
To counter these challenges, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria and other similar economies focus on improving fiscal management and strengthening the social contract with citizens.
These measures are seen as crucial for fostering inclusive economic development and achieving long-term poverty reduction.
