By Jemimah Wellington, JKNewsMedia Reporter
THE INDEPENDENT Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has criticised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for trimming Nigeria’s projected economic growth in 2025 from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent, arguing the assessment overlooks the country’s broader economic evolution beyond oil.
In a policy statement signed by Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank dismissed the IMF’s rationale, which links the revision to anticipated global oil price weakness.
IMPI contended that Nigeria’s economy has diversified significantly, bolstered by non-oil exports and supportive policy reforms.
“The IMF justified this forecast by citing projected lower global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances,” the statement read.
“We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, moreso when Nigeria is moving away from its dependency on crude oil earnings.”
IMPI signalled its preference for the more optimistic 7 percent growth projection issued by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, and pointed to the World Bank’s own estimate of 3.6 percent growth in 2025 as a more grounded outlook.
According to the World Bank, continued economic reforms, a stabilising macroeconomic environment, and strong performance from sectors like ICT, telecoms, and financial services underpin their forecast.
Highlighting similar cases worldwide, IMPI argued that IMF forecasts have drawn criticism from other countries such as Mexico and Zambia, where local authorities rejected IMF assessments as inaccurate or misaligned with domestic economic realities.
“In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasted a 0.3 per cent contraction in Mexico’s economic growth for 2025, down from the Fund’s January forecast of a 1.4 per cent expansion,” IMPI noted.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum openly disputed the forecast, emphasising strong domestic investments and policy buffers under her administration.
The statement also referenced the 2008 financial crisis, during which the IMF wrongly predicted a collapse in Zambia’s economy due to falling copper prices—yet the Zambian economy weathered the storm.
“From the foregoing, it is clear why Nigerians should not take the recent IMF’s negative economic projections very seriously,” IMPI asserted. “Experience has shown that several IMF projections on developing economies, such as ours, often prove inaccurate.”
Addressing IMF and World Bank concerns about Nigeria’s poverty levels, IMPI maintained that the current federal administration is uniquely equipped to reduce poverty, compared to past governments that presided over economic growth periods without significant poverty alleviation.
“Before 2023, the country had been a site for endemic poverty… reaching a high of 99.2 million people in 2010,” the statement recalled. It added that these figures emerged even when crude oil prices were buoyant, averaging $100 to $120 per barrel with high production levels.
By contrast, present indicators, including continued growth in non-oil sectors and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 2025 report showing economic expansion, reflect improved economic health.
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.3 points, marking the third consecutive month of economic growth in 2025.
IMPI concluded, “If there is ever a possibility of reducing the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line, it is under the current federal administration.”
